After a sweeping parliamentary victory, the race will test the new prime minister’s political dominance amid questions over corruption, accountability, and Bulgaria’s relations with Russia and the West.
Bulgaria’s presidential election on 25 October comes during a period of tremendous political change. In January, Rumen Radev resigned as president to launch his own political project, ending nine years in the country’s highest office and setting the way for his vice president, Iliana Iotova, to take over. Three months later, in April, Radev’s political group, Progressive Bulgaria, won 44.6% of the vote in the parliamentary elections, securing 131 of 240 seats and achieving the largest parliamentary majority in Bulgaria since 1997. Radev became prime minister in May, and Iotova is now running for a full presidential term.
This result marked a turning point following years of political instability. Since 2021, Bulgaria has held eight parliamentary elections, with new parties emerging and repeated attempts to form governing coalitions often ending in political deadlock and further elections. During this period of uncertainty, the president played an important role in appointing caretaker cabinets, with seven caretaker governments formed over five years. This gave Radev a prominent position in Bulgarian politics at a time when public frustration with corruption and established political parties was growing.
Radev’s decision to enter parliamentary politics allowed him to build on this position. Progressive Bulgaria campaigned on promises of judicial reform, tackling corruption, and returning power to ordinary citizens, while Radev presented himself as a disciplined, trustworthy leader capable of bringing stability after years of political uncertainty. However, his pragmatic and often skeptical approach toward certain EU and NATO policies, particularly military support for Ukraine, has also raised questions about Bulgaria’s foreign-policy direction.
The presidential election will be the first major electoral test since Progressive Bulgaria’s victory in April. With Iotova seeking a full term, the vote will also test whether Radev’s political influence can extend beyond his move to the prime minister’s office. Meanwhile, opposition parties face the challenge of presenting an alternative despite their different political positions and priorities.
The first major test for Radev’s government has been how to turn its campaign promises into policies. Progressive Bulgaria came to power promising to fight corruption, improve living standards, and challenge the political establishment. However, its early record has already raised questions about how far it can deliver on those commitments.
Drafting the 2026 budget has been one of the government’s most controversial decisions. Passed in July, it sets a deficit target of 5.7 percent of GDP, the highest Bulgaria has seen in three decades, and authorizes up to 10.1 billion euros in new borrowing. The government has argued that it inherited a difficult financial position from its predecessor, but opposition parties have criticized the scale of the deficit. Presidential candidate Andrey Gyurov has also criticized the government’s spending policies, warning that the large deficit could increase inflationary pressure. The budget also included provisions freezing the minimum wage at 620 euros by removing the existing formula for automatic increases. However, on 21 October, Bulgaria’s Constitutional Court ruled that the provisions concerning the wage freeze were unconstitutional.
Reform Promises Under Scrutiny
Corruption has presented another challenge. Radev built much of his political appeal around opposing the influence of Delyan Peevski, a powerful businessman, member of parliament, and leader of the opposition Movement for Rights and Freedoms (DPS). Peevski has been sanctioned by the United States and the United Kingdom over corruption allegations. Since taking office, the government has withdrawn state-funded security protection for Peevski and former Prime Minister Boyko Borissov, while an inquiry into Peevski’s use of private planes has also been initiated. The government has also taken steps towards reforming anti-corruption institutions and announced plans for broader judicial reform. However, problems with judicial independence and the prosecution of high-level corruption cases remain, presenting challenges to how far the government can actually deliver on its promises.
Foreign policy has also revealed the limits of a straightforward pro-European or pro-Russian label for Radev’s government. While maintaining Bulgaria’s formal commitments to the EU and NATO, it has taken a more cautious approach to military support for Ukraine and advocated more pragmatic relations with Moscow. In July, Radev announced that Bulgaria would not join the “coalition of the willing,” arguing that the war in Ukraine should be resolved through diplomacy rather than continued military assistance. “I believe that the solution to this conflict does not lie in prolonging it through military means, but in a strong diplomatic mission that will finally put an end to the escalation,” he said. At the same time, his government has continued to support Ukraine’s bid for EU membership.
The recent escalation of drone attacks on commercial vessels in the Black Sea has presented a more immediate security challenge. On 13 October, two merchant ships were struck by drones just outside Bulgaria’s territorial waters, leaving one vessel sunk and 11 crew members missing.
Radev condemned the attacks as unacceptable and sought support from NATO and the EU, calling for stronger coordination to protect commercial shipping in the region. While he stopped short of directly attributing responsibility, he acknowledged that the attacks appeared to benefit Russia. On 16 October, Bulgaria formally requested additional NATO aircraft and anti-drone systems to strengthen its defenses, while also seeking closer cooperation with Romania and Turkey.
The crisis has highlighted the challenges facing Radev’s government as it attempts to maintain a more cautious position on the war in Ukraine while relying on NATO cooperation to address security threats near Bulgaria’s borders. It has also brought foreign policy and national security into the center of the presidential election campaign.
Iotova Faces a Test of Her Own
With Bulgaria’s presidential election fast approaching, the campaign has increasingly focused on the candidates’ political records, foreign-policy positions, and questions of accountability. Although the presidency has limited executive powers, the election offers another indication of the country’s political direction following Radev’s job change.
Iliana Iotova is seeking her first full presidential term, with Kiril Valchev as her vice-presidential candidate. Their ticket has the backing of Radev’s Progressive Bulgaria and the Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP). Campaigning under the slogan “For a Bulgaria in Safe Hands,” Iotova has emphasized stability, national unity, and the defense of Bulgarian interests. However, her campaign has also faced several controversies.
One of the most significant concerns a pardon Iotova granted in 2022 while serving as vice president, exercising a power that Radev had delegated to her under Bulgaria’s constitution. The decision concerned Ognyan Atanasov, a convicted drug trafficker sentenced to 15 years in prison by a Greek court and subsequently transferred to a prison in Bulgaria. Iotova pardoned him after he had served five years. The decision was based on medical grounds, but the case returned to public attention during the presidential campaign following reports that Atanasov had been arrested again in 2025 in connection with cocaine trafficking. Opposition parties, including We Continue the Change and Democratic Bulgaria, have questioned the justification for the pardon and demanded the release of the relevant documents. Iotova has defended her decision, maintaining that she followed expert medical assessments and the recommendations of the presidential pardon commission.
Iotova has also faced criticism for declining an invitation to debate her main challenger, Andrey Gyurov, before the first round on 25 October. Her campaign justified the decision by arguing that voters should first determine which candidates advance to the runoff. Iotova has since confirmed that she would participate in a televised debate on Bulgarian National Television if she reaches the second round.
Gyurov represents the reformist opposition and is supported by the We Continue the Change–Democratic Bulgaria coalition (PP–DB). A former member of parliament and deputy governor of the Bulgarian National Bank, Gyurov served as caretaker prime minister from February to May 2026, overseeing the country ahead of the April parliamentary elections. He is running alongside Georgi Kandev, who served as acting chief secretary of the Interior Ministry before resigning in June following disagreements over personnel decisions. Their campaign has focused on the need for a president who can act independently of Radev’s government and challenge its decisions when necessary, rather than simply supporting the ruling majority. Gyurov has also emphasized Bulgaria’s commitments to the EU and NATO. Gyurov has argued that the president should act as a check on the government rather than simply support its decisions.
Foreign policy has become an important point of disagreement between the two campaigns. In a recent interview, Iotova avoided directly identifying Russia as the aggressor in the war against Ukraine, while Gyurov explicitly described the conflict as an illegal Russian war of aggression. Their differences have also been visible in their responses to the recent Black Sea security crisis. While Iotova has emphasized diplomatic efforts and coordination with Bulgaria’s European and NATO partners, Gyurov has criticized the government for its inadequate response to the attacks. He called for immediate consultations with other alliance states and a concrete plan to protect Bulgaria’s coastline and commercial shipping.
A Fragmented Field
A third prominent ticket pairs Kostadin Kostadinov, leader of the nationalist Vazrazhdane party, with Petar Volgin, a former Bulgarian National Radio journalist and current member of the European Parliament. Their campaign challenges Bulgaria’s established foreign-policy direction, particularly its military and political alignment with Western partners.
For the first time in its history, the long-dominant GERB party did not nominate a presidential candidate; nor has Borissov, the party leader and former long-serving prime minister, formally endorsed another ticket, leaving Bulgaria’s most significant political force of the past two decades, currently the largest opposition party, with no voice in the campaign. This unorthodox decision adds another layer of uncertainty about how opposition voters will approach the election, particularly if it goes to a second round.
Recent opinion polls have placed Iotova ahead of her challengers. A Trend survey released on 6 October gave Iotova and Valchev 47.8 percent among respondents intending to vote, followed by the Gyurov–Kandev ticket at 24.6 percent and Kostadinov and Volgin at 9.7 percent. The figures suggest a second round remains possible, with turnout and voters’ choices supporting smaller candidates potentially shaping the final result.
Beyond deciding who becomes Bulgaria’s next president, the election will also indicate how far Radev’s political influence extends after his parliamentary victory. At the same time, the campaign has brought questions about the presidency’s role in holding the government to account and Bulgaria’s foreign-policy direction back into focus. The result will therefore matter not only for the presidency but also for the balance of political power after years of instability.
Diana Yosifova is a Bulgarian journalist and master’s student in modern political culture at Maastricht University. Her work focuses on Bulgarian politics, European affairs, and political developments in Eastern Europe. She is currently an editorial intern at Transitions.
